Should you take insurance in blackjack?
QUICK ANSWER
No. Insurance is a bad bet for basic-strategy players. It pays 2:1 if the dealer has blackjack, but the dealer only has blackjack about 31% of the time when showing an Ace — you need 33% to break even. Only card counters with a positive count should take it.
What insurance is
A side bet, offered when the dealer shows an Ace, that pays 2:1 if their hole card is a 10-value.
The math
- Dealer needs a 10-value to have blackjack.
- 16 of 52 cards are 10-values → probability ≈ 30.8%.
- Break-even is 33.3% (2:1 payout).
- Expected loss ≈ 7.7% of the insurance bet.
"Even money"
When you have a blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace, taking even money is mathematically identical to insurance — decline it too.
The exception
With a Hi-Lo true count of +3 or higher, the deck is 10-rich and insurance becomes +EV. See What is a true count?.
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